While the 5 remaining GOP candidates continue to jockey for position through the January primary calendar, one should not discount any number of possible wildcards yet to be played.
This Saturday, South Carolina votes and that race is getting tighter after last night’s debate. Depending on the South Carolina outcome, we may well just be watching the beginning of the real race to the nomination.
After Saturday, it’s easy to see Rick Perry dropping out. His financial backing has evaporated and his slow start with debates never allowed him to gain the sort of traction he enjoyed in the weeks before he actually entered the race.
This is not to say he will leave empty handed as he does have some die hard supporters.
Wildcard 1…Who will Perry endorse when he drops out?
It seems unlikely he’ll get behind Romney and impossible to believe he’ll throw his support to Ron Paul. That leaves Santorum and Gingrich – and let’s face it, Perry, Gingrich and Santorum have been splitting up the “Not Romney” vote for several weeks.
If Perry throws his support behind the evangelical vote, it goes to Santorum. If he throws it behind the candidate with the best chance to beat Romney, it’s Gingrich. Of the two, the one seen as the best bet to beat Obama is Gingrich.
Nothing is certain but at first blush…Advantage Newt.
Perry’s endorsement isn’t the only one sought after and that brings us to wildcard 2.
So far, endorsements haven’t amounted to much though Nikki Haley’s support of Romney has so far held the most water. There are others however that can and will play into the mix.
Jeb Bush, the 2-term Florida Governor is sought after. His sway before the January 31st Florida primary may well be the key to victory in that state and he carries with him a substantial boost from Hispanic voters.
Herman Cain still have some devoted fans out there and he’s been playing his cards close to the vest. He has said he doesn’t see Santorum as Presidential and it’s doubtful he’ll support Romney. Newt? When the time is right, if it’s right…Newt.
Sarah Palin has yet to attach her considerable political clout to anyone and regardless of what liberals like to think and say, Palin’s endorsement will carry weight. Lots of weight.
Donald Trump has yet to do anything but tease, and while he doesn’t hold a lot of viable political sway, when the Donald talks, people listen. Will they take his advice should he offer it? That’s yet to be seen; but suffice it to say, the candidates wouldn’t scoff at a Trump endorsement especially considering his lack of political sway is more than offset by his rather hefty financial punch.
This allows us to look at the next card in the pack.
Wildcard 3.
Have we seen all the possible candidates yet? Some believe not, and if they’re correct, who is left to jump in?
Palin or Trump? Those are the obvious nods. From the far outside could we see Christi walk away from Mitt? What about a return to the race from Cain? I rather doubt either of those last 2 will play their cards here.
Allen West? Probably not, although it’s likely he would accept a VP nod from the eventual nominee which is why he, in my opinion, has not made an endorsement.
It’s my guess, aside from a possible last minute Palin run, we’ve seen the GOP field.
Wildcard 4…The 3rd party spoiler.
This is a distinct possibility. Both Trump and Ron Paul have been teasing the idea. Trump has hinted at it more having changed his affiliation to undeclared. Paul has said he doesn’t see a 3rd party in his future but, he’s already a 3rd party candidate in reality. It wouldn’t take much imagination to see either of these two egos, having been shunned by the GOP, thinking falsely that they have the chops to win as a 3rd party candidate.
What this, or wildcard 5…A write in candidacy by the voters themselves would accomplish is nothing but a certain 2nd term for Obama, as whoever the eventual GOP nominee IS, would have a 2-front war on their hands.
Wildcard 6 would be the emergence of a yet to be known or clarified issue upon which one candidate or another could hitch their wagon.
This could be a sudden spike in gas prices, the building sanction showdown with Iran, Israel taking action against Iran or an unseen but not terribly unexpected economic shift downward. God forbid, a terror attack.
The candidate with the quickest and most effective response to any unforeseen occurrence would reap the benefit of the uncommitted voters.
Wildcard 7 would be the looming Constitutional crisis created by Obama’s “recess appointments and/or the looming scandals including Fast and Furious and Solyndra. Let’s not forget the court case regarding Obama’s eligibility coming up just days before the Florida Primary either. While the outcome of THAT will be appealed by either side, a successful challenge in the Georgia court will make Obama even less appealing to his own base.
Any of them could, COULD, doom Obama’s run for a 2nd term.
Such a wildcard as this would have an immediate shift in focus for the GOP field as the general election would be against a “Not Obama” candidate. SHOULD something like this happen, it’s most likely the liberal opponent would become Hillary – and against a Clinton, Newt has the experience.
While Newt found ways to work WITH Clinton when Bill was in the White House, and some may try to play that against him, Newt was successful in that he forced Clinton toward the center.
Wildcard 8 would have to be the proverbial “Shot in the foot.”
Any one of the candidates could easily shoot down their own hopes. Last night, in the South Carolina debate, Ron Paul, on the foreign policy topic, continued to do triple axles on thin ice. Should Newt continue to attack GOP opponents rather than place his own talents in the limelight, he’ll be limping away too.
Wildcard number 9? The polls.
Polling is always an iffy proposition but, within the 24-hour news cycles we have today, polls are flying faster than F-117.
The poll above all others which I believe could, if any poll could, make a difference, is the “Which GOP Candidate is most likely to beat Obama” poll. So far, Romney has been winning that poll. If not Mitt, than a generic GOP candidate has been in the lead.
Should Obama suddenly jump ahead of Romney in THAT poll, the independents and undecided Republican voters will, I believe, quickly trend AWAY from Mitt. This would also necessarily mandate a shift in GOP support from a financial standpoint. This is to say the GOP itself would have to recalculate and donors would, as they often do, get quickly behind most viable option.
Now, is that “Most Viable Option” a candidate already IN the field or…see wildcard 3…the “Not yet in the race” candidate?
Finally, we have Wildcard 10.
This one is up to you, our readers. Click on “comment” below and feel free to add in your OWN wildcard!
One should not expect only ONE wildcard to come into play either. Expect several to be played and several at the same time.
Okay readers, comment away and let’s see YOUR number 10 wildcard!
Nothing about the Dems? You are completely leaving out a voting block.
What good are the Wild Cards if you don’t include research how the Dems will vote? Are you assuming they will vote for Barry as they did in 2008?
Ahhhh…You see? THAT is exactly why I left #10 OPEN you YOU…Our Readers. YOUR wildcard #10 is…The liberal voters!! Very good!!!
Playing some fear to stir the electoral pot? Your wildcard #5 is horribly incorrect. You underestimate the power of Barry to destroy his own base. You conveniently leave out the Dem party while including others, yet declare the Dems will vote like mind dead robots. You don’t even address the people who won’t vote because of apathy. Sure many of you journalistic types don’t want to step on Barry’s toes and present the real statistical calculation that Barry won’t win. Please fill #5 with proof of your claim by asking the Dems if they will show up for Barry after discussing many of the acts he has signed. I’m write-in Cain and in no way does that make Barry the winner when I didn’t vote for Barry. Who you should be pointing your blame stick at are the parties who haven’t made their message to voters anymore popular than the winner in 2012. May the best candidate win, not what the media wants in a candidate.
Huh?
I may be wrong, but I think Sarah Palin’s withholding an endorsement in hopes of a VP spot. We need to get as many as possible to throw their support to Newt, cuz, imo, he’s the only one who has a prayer of beating Obama. The MSM is trying to force Mittens down our collective throats, but that same MSM will chew him up in the general. A “debate” between Obama & Romney would be a nightmare..Obama & his teleprompter vs Mittens & his fake platitudes & promises-2 sides of the very same coin!
I am now a “Paulbot” as are MANY who I personally know. NOT ONE OF US is planning on writing him in. We all understand that OMG!! I am soooo sick of everyone portraying us as stupid enough to do anything like that. Quit spreading rumors about us, please, there’s enough of them already. 🙂
the paulbots already plan to write him in (general election), if he doesn’t run 3rd party… they don’t care that it will ensure an obama victory…. that is how hypocritical they are… they pretend to believe that everything begins & ends w/ the Constitution; yet, they’re willing to kill it for their guy! go figure???