Tomorrow, voters in Iowa will caucus. It’s not a primary as we have come to define primaries but still, it is something of a popularity contest.

The main difference between the caucus and a primary, is that no delegates are won.

So…why bother?

Because those who place well, or win the Iowa caucus head into early primary states…New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and the like, with more momentum.

If there is one thing we can expect from the 2012 Iowa caucus, it would be to expect very little to change moving forward.

We should expect the race to remain contentious. We should expect the race to remain divided. We should expect the race to remain populated and we should expect the race to remain a roller coaster sort of affair.

The key word in all we should expect is…

“Remain.”

One can almost predict that Jon Huntsman will finish dead last but that’s because he’s not participating. In past Iowa caucuses…cauci…those who have finished dead last have, in many cases, dropped out of the race. No momentum going forward but, that will not be the case this time around.

This time, all will remain IN probably until after the South Carolina results but that doesn’t exactly mean the field will narrow.

Remember, there is still, looming out there, a possible Donald Trump 3^rd party candidacy or…a possibility of a Ron Paul 3^rd party run if things don’t go to his liking…momentum or not.

New Hampshire could bring an end to Huntsman’s run if he finishes last there but don’t count on it.

Santorum has stated if HE finishes dead last tomorrow HE would drop out but, if one can go by the latest polls, that’s not going to happen. Santorum is benefitting from a strong and exhausting Iowa schedule and maybe more so from the negative campaign fallout regarding Newt’s candidacy.

Romney has run millions of dollars worth of negative ads against Newt over the last 2 weeks in Iowa which has brought him back to the top but just barely. Ron Paul and his army of Ronulan lemmings are looking strong but they are being bolstered by an influx of democrats who know a Paul nomination equals an Obama reelection. While Paul will do well in Iowa, it’s relatively easy to predict his actual numbers will begin to fall as he moves into other early voting states because of his rather dangerous view of the world stage.

Rick Perry, while struggling back into the lexicon, probably won’t get much further than South Carolina.

Bachmann? Her campaign is again smarting from the defection of a key organization defection and that will take its toll before too much longer.

So, what of Newt Gingrich? Newt, only 3 weeks ago, was soaring in the polls and had become the one to beat. As we’ve seen throughout this nearly yearlong contest, the one to beat quickly becomes the one on which to beat up.

While Newt should be commended for being the “Mr. Nice Guy” so far, it is going to become necessary, if he is to win in New Hampshire and/or South Carolina, to start beating the “Not so Mr. Nice Guys” to the punch.

They say the best offense is a good defense but being constantly on the defense means you’re not in control of the action and during political primary season, control is at least 75% of a winning strategy.

The key to it all is South Carolina.

A candidate has historically HAD to win South Carolina to get the GOP nomination and/or win the general election.

This is where momentum comes into play. Do well in Iowa, win or come in 2^nd in New Hampshire and you go into South Carolina in control.

Suffice it to say, we’re going to know a whole lot more by the END of this month than we will by the end of tomorrow.

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)

For Jon Huntsman to state “In Iowa, they pick corn. In New Hampshire, they pick presidents,” was the wrong thing to say. Iowa sets the stage. Iowa provides the first boost to those who WILL contend ultimately for the nomination.

Not only did Huntsman downplay Iowa with that remark, he downplayed the entire corn-picking belt. Flyover country.

In case he hasn’t noticed, that IS the biggest collection of red states on the entire map and if you’re going to slam one state in all of that geographically crimson region, you’re slamming them all.

Iowa, in its own way, is just as important as New Hampshire to the process.

If basketball has its March Madness, then presidential races have January Jockeying.

Tomorrow, in Iowa, they caucus.

While the results may not change the picture much, they will set the stage for what we can expect over the next 4 weeks and friends, hang on…this is going to be a bumpy ride.