It’s time I think, to take another look at the GOP field with regards to the debates and their positions in the polls. While there is plenty to cover, it can actually be boiled down rather neatly if you know at what to look.
To start with, let’s look at the debates.
It would take days to cover each and every little nuance of all the debates thus far and doing so would likely yield little in the way of usefulness. Not that what these candidates have said ISN’T useful, it’s just not where we need to focus for the purpose of this article.
What I am going to point out is a rather general overview.
In each debate thus far, we see all the participating candidates lined up but it bears note as to how that lineup is set.
Those who are polling the best, at the time of any specific debate, are at or near the center of the stage. Those who poll lower are farther to one end or the other. Simple.
By and large, those closest to center stage will get more questions than those at either end and in most debates, if a candidate calls out another in his or her answer, the candidate called out gets 30 seconds to respond. This is what leads to sound bites and dust ups, arguments and TV ratings.
The debates are the best way, at least at this point, to get the most information to the widest audience at one time – and therefore, a key platform for candidates in stating their positions to voters. Depending on how individual candidates present their positions and 
themselves has something to do with their poll numbers and therefore, where they will stand at the next debate.
The better they do the closer to center stage they go…The worse they do…the further out to the side.
A couple of weeks ago, in an article, I posed the question, “Am I the only one who believes the more we hear from Rick Perry the less we’re going to hear from Rick Perry?”
As it turns out, I was spot on.
Perry is not good on the debate stage. He has trouble articulating his position, becomes defensive, gets called out…a lot…and has been involved in several dust ups. While he debuted at number 1 in the polls, he has since lost a mile of ground in the polls. He’s out of the top 3 or 4 now and that’s quite a major blow.
Perry and Romney have been involved in those dust ups, created sound bites and garnered whatever TV ratings can be garnered by such debates but now, Romney too has started to fall in the polls.
Center stage at the next Debate goes to Herman Cain.
Romney will not be at the end of the line rather, still close to the center with Gingrich.
Perry?
Ahhh…there’s the rub.
Perry has announced that from here on out, he will be much more picky about which debates he attends…hence… “The more we hear from Rick Perry, the less we’re going to hear from Rick Perry.”
Apparently, his handlers have decided he’ll lose less ground by simply being absent than he would by talking – and considering the damage he’s done to his campaign in such short order, they’re probably correct in that assessment.
The next debate, on November 9th, will be the most interesting so far in that the topic of focus will be foreign affairs policy.
Foreign affairs policy will most likely help Gingrich the most as he has a deep knowledge of history and has been involved in that arena for a long time. It will help Huntsman to some extent as he was the Ambassador to China but any question hurled his way or to Rick Santorum or Michelle Bachmann, considering their podium positions on the stage, will interrupt a rousing game of Go Fish with various stagehands.
A foreign policy debate will likely harm Ron Paul as he shows no more incentive to help our allies than to stand against our enemies. Paul’s position in regard to foreign affairs is pretty much…No more foreign aid, get out of whateveristan we might be in, build a wall, let Ahmedingdong have a nuke and get off my lawn.
Gray Johnson…Yep…Still a candidate will so far from center stage he may as well be IN a foreign country for
the next debate.
Mitt Romney does have SOME foreign affairs experience and believe me, should the specter of war arise between the Flemish and Jamaican curling teams…Mitt IS the go to guy but, he’ll hold his own I’m sure since it will shift the focus away from his domestic policies.
That leaves Herman Cain who has no foreign policy experience whatsoever but…He’s a lot smarter than a lot of people give him credit for and by sticking up for our allies, standing against our enemies and not declaring war against his fellow GOP candidates, He won’t lose anything because of this debate.
Okay, now…The Polls.
Currently, this is how things look.
Depending on who you support this is either great news or it stinks but as there are as many different polls as there are stars in the sky and most of them release data daily whether there’s any change or not, there is something you should know regardless of your candidate of choice.
Whatever the number is for your candidate it’s either close to reality or completely separated from it and here’s why.
According to a very different poll…only about 20% of likely GOP voters have settled in on a candidate. That means that 80% of likely GOP voters are still in the vetting process and all these polls may well not mean a darn thing right now.
This is essentially exactly where we were at this point back in 2007 and if the polls then were spot on it would have been Rudy against Hillary.
At this point, regardless of where a candidate stands on the debate stage, it’s still an open field and the best part is that Obama can’t yet focus his attacks on any one contender.
Bottom line? Nothing is set in stone at this point and the only safe bet right now is no bet at all. If history is any indicator at all, slow and steady wins the race.
