By Craig Andresen 7-31-11

In a week and a weekend when the war of words in Washington DC rose to extreme caliber as deadlines approached and rhetoric led the day, there were indeed winners and losers.

While the American people are still looking for leadership from the hallowed halls and the White House few if any feel like winners. Congress continues to conduct their business regardless of the prevailing wishes of We The People. In recent polls, 66% of the people have indicated THEY want or demand a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

Amending the Constitution is not easy and justifiably so. If it WAS easy, God knows WHAT the Constitution would look like after 235 years. It is likely it would resemble nothing of its original direction and likely too that our republic would have crumbled away because of it.

To amend the constitution, either the House or the Senate can propose an amendment and 2/3 of both the Senate and the House must vote to approve of it or 2/3 of the states must call on Congress to hold a Constitutional Convention.

In order to actually ratify an amendment, 1 of 2 things must then occur. Either ¾ of all state legislatures must ratify it or ¾ of the states must hold a ratifying convention and approved the amendment.

The Supreme Court has set a “reasonable” time frame for such action to not exceed 7 years.

At a time when downloading an entire book to an iPad takes 7 seconds, 7 years seems an eternity but in context, the bills being put forth in Congress to balance the budget will take 10 years IF they indeed work therefore, 7 years IS the fast track.

Hitching a proposed balanced budget amendment to the debt ceiling vote, as was done with Cut Cap and Balance and the Boehner bill would have required a future vote on a balanced budget amendment and while both those bills passed the House, both were tabled in the Senate.

That brings us to the winners and the losers in this current budget/debt situation.

Winners

As for the winners, one can place the Tea Party in that category. Without the Tea Party backed candidates sweeping into the House in November 2010, it’s impossible to imagine that a balanced budget amendment would have even been a part of the discussion in any way shape or form when it came to raising the debt ceiling and had it not been part of the discussion, it’s a fair bet that the American people would have paid much notice to yet another raising of that ceiling.

Speaker Boehner, after much consternation, finds himself in the winner section. Boehner presided over and constructed not 1 but 2 bills regarding the debt ceiling that passed the House. The first, Cut Cap and Balance receive some amount of bipartisan support while the so called Boehner Bill passed only after retooling and arm twisting on a strictly partisan vote. It is the sheer fact that both actually passed that makes Boehner a winner.

The American people, whether they believe it or not and whether they, because of individual party affiliation supported those measures or not, are winners because of the two bills. The people win by virtue of the fact that the Tea Party has forced the issue to points never before seen in an attempt to raise the debt ceiling and because those elected officials who adhere to Tea Party guidelines are steering Congress toward a high degree of fiscal responsibility by insisting on no added revenue through tax increases and a cut in spending equal to or greater than any rise in the debt ceiling.

Losers

As for the losers, first we find the President who rather than lead on anything regarding the budget or the national debt has failed miserably at every turn. By law, the President must submit a budget and Obama’s budget, delivered to the Senate, was such a twisted abject disaster it failed to receive a single vote. 97-0 was the final count meaning that not even a lone member of his own party could bring themselves to vote aye.

Obama also stayed out of the debt ceiling negotiations until push came to shove and so leaderly was his too late involvement that members of the republican delegation walked out on several occasions which eventually relegated the President to being a lecturer rather than a leader. Over and over, Obama walked to the nearest microphone to blame Bush, blame the Tea Party, scold the republicans and chide private jet owners.

One must also place Obama in the loser category because through it all, despite his and his Press Secretary’s claims to the contrary, the President offered no plan. On countless occasions, republicans from both the House and the Senate asked to see the President’s plan. They demanded to see it. The sad fact was, flying in the face of what had been labeled as “the most well known plan out there” it simply never existed.

In what may well have been the ultimate slam, the CBO, when asked about the viability of the “Obama Plan” simply stated that, “We do not score political speeches.”

Add Harry Reid to the loser team. Within 45 minutes of the passage of the Boehner Bill, Reid tabled it without debate or a vote, just as he did with Cut Cap and Balance. Within minutes of tabling that bill, Reid stood before a microphone and derided republicans and the Tea Party for filibustering HIS bill and not allowing a vote on it but the problem with THAT was that immediately after Reid tabled the Boehnr Bill, Republican Senator called for the Reid bill to be placed at once for debate and a vote which Reid himself declined to do. Further, in his rant against the right, Reid also attempted to make hay with the delay in a vote by the House on the Boehner bill because Boehner initially did not have the numbers he needed.

Oops. As it turned out, neither did Reid have the numbers HE needed and the vote on HIS bill became delayed by 2 days. When the Reid bill finally DID come to a vote it was shot down 50-49. Loser.

The Gang of 6? That bipartisan committee was convened to solve these problems hit some very partisan brick walls and disbanded only to reform in the 11^th hour and trumpet a solution to the stalemate. What they handed in however was the barest of a proposed outline and nothing in the form of a bill which could be brought to any floor. Put the Gang in the loser section.

Also in the category of losers, arguably, are the American people, trapped in a sort of limbo by the politics of compromise. Up for grabs are interest rates, the markets, possible easing of unemployment and another recession.

A debt ceiling “deal” went into the hands of yet another commission trying to hammer out details and cobble together yet another bill which may or may not pass both, or either the Senate or the House and standing in the wings are those who will determine our national credit rating. If whatever the next proposal is manages to pass both through the House and the Senate AND is signed into law by the President, we may retain our AAA rating. If unsuccessful, we most likely will have our rating downgraded for the first time in history and the blame game will be in full swing.

The so called. Middle Measure was signed off on by Harry Reid pending the approval of his caucus meaning he himself was done negotiating while republican leaders claimed negotiations were not yet completed. As this news slowly leaked, many on the far left were reportedly livid claiming they would NOT vote for the measure as it contained no new revenue…code for taxes.

The Middle Measure allows for an immediate cutting of 1 trillion dollars in spending over 10 years and a raise of the debt ceiling by 900 billion dollars.  The “deal” also calls for a special committee of 12…or 6 depending on which early report you choose to believe equal in democrats and republicans to make recommendations for more cuts of 1.5 trillion dollars by the end of the year. If those cuts are approved by the House and the Senate, an additional 1.5 trillion will then be added to the debt ceiling. If those recommendations are NOT passed, certain triggers are contained within the measure to kick in.

One of the triggers of particular concern to the republican leadership, and rightly so, is one that would cause deep cuts to the military which many see as already stressed and short on funds and which many on the right fear would leave our national defense lacking. On the left, triggers would make deep cuts to entitlements such as Medicare.

One thing NOT contained in this measure is a requirement that a balanced budget amendment be passed and sent to the people BEFORE the second round of debt ceiling increase and THAT may turn off more than a few of the republicans.

The sad fact is that tax increases,disguised as “tax reform” as a part of the 2nd tier of this measure will be on the table and a stalemate on that issue could well force the triggers to be pulled. Something else that should be known about this measure is that it does not reverse the the spend trend in Washington but simply slows it. Instead of sprinting toward insolvency, we will be walking briskly toward it.

The Middle Measure is thought to be harder to pass in the House than the Senate but look for far fewer republicans supporting it in the House than supported the Boehner bill. 216 votes in the House are needed and a mix of both party’s representatives will get it there. In the Senate, 60 is the magic number and it will be close.

A vote originally thought to on tap for late Sunday night was postponed until sometime on Monday but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen until Tuesday as Members of congress will want to go through the “deal” with a fine tooth comb.As of midnight Sunday, most Members of Congress were still awaiting the details.

The idea that the single largest increase of the debt ceiling with the nation’s credit rating dangling in the balance being concocted and voted on in less than 24 hours should well give all involved and the people who will be effected by it a great deal of pause.

It’s safe to say that leaders of both the Senate and House will spend a considerable amount of hours trying to wrangle votes in favor of a bill which has not seen debate or has been fully read by the Members all in the name of expediency. Considering the track record of such legislation throughout this administration, this procedure seems like deja vu.

If the Middle Measure doe NOT pass, the downgrade is eminent. if it DOES pass, the downgrade is less likely but certainly not off the table. If a downgrade occurs, Obama will be the first President to preside over one  and he will likely become an instant lame duck.

The future depends on the American people. The surest way to right the ship of state and truly reverse the spending frenzy would be to gain a balanced budget amendment, even if it takes 7 years to come to fruition and the only way, it seems, to accomplish that is to sweep into the Senate, Tea Party republicans, increase their numbers in the House and put a Tea Party backed candidate in the White House.

While the current process grinds on those stepping to the cameras are agreeing on one thing, that there are elements of this Middle Measure which will make everybody angry. So, this process tying spending cuts of at least as much as a raise to the debt ceiling is unique however, the execution of the process is still business as usual and any positive outcome from it seems to be more of a political pat on the back than a real life fiscal accomplishment.

As we have seen, as many have come to realize and in spite of what the Obama campaign of 2008 claimed, neither a politician nor a committee of them can change the way Washington does business.

Only We The People can do that.