By Craig Andresen 8-1-11

The great debt deal announced Sunday evening may well be no deal at all. In fact, as Members of Congress pour through it, it may wind up as no dice.

There are many troubling elements of the “deal” which must be carefully considered before the vote can take place, possibly later today and Members from BOTH parties are starting to sound more and more negative regarding their individual votes.

Here are just SOME of the troubling issues:

1)      The “deal” would construct a “super committee” comprised of 12 Members of Congress, 3 each republicans and democrats from both houses. That “super committee” would then be charged with producing spending cuts and recommend those cuts to Congress for votes. Traditionally, committees in Washington are by and large, a waste of time and effort and the idea that THIS one will perform differently is dubious.

2)      The “deal” would take hostages. Both Medicare and defense spending would be held hostage to the actions and performance of the “super committee” and should they NOT perform, defense and Medicare would be slashed. In the case of defense, the slash would be to the tune of some 450 billion dollars over 10 years leaving our national capabilities to defend the country in serious trouble. By the way, that 450 billion is more than likely a low figure. Also held hostage is the well being of seniors and when you pair the downside of this “deal” with the issues contained in Obamacare, the overall effect could devastate the Medicare system.

3)      The “deal” contains tax hikes. This deal allows for the Bush tax cuts to expire in 2013 which means tax hikes AND it allows for “tax reform” which under the current administration also means tax hikes.

4)      The “deal” does allow for spending cuts but it is now being characterized by some who have had a chance to study the plan that those cuts will not kick in until 2013. On its surface the “deal” calls for a 2 part cut with the initial tier to take place now and the second to take place later however, it could be a buried clause which relegates those cuts, all of them, to later.

5)      The “deal” does NOT include enough spending cuts to match or exceed those deemed necessary by ratings agencies to avoid a downgrade from our nation’s AAA status and at least 2 of those agencies are now speaking to that effect. Does that mean we will be downgraded no matter if the bill is passed or not? Prediction…65-35 percent that we will be downgraded…no matter what.

6)      The “deal” projects cuts based on the “baseline” of national spending. The problem with THIS is that the “Baseline” is NOT a FLAT line but an inclining line which grows by 8% each year.

7)      The “deal” allows for the biggest debt ceiling raise in history and by the end of its 10 year lifespan, the United States will be nearly 22 trillion dollars in debt, a 3 trillion dollar difference were the “deal” not in place.

8)      The “deal” does not include a mandate for passage of a balanced budget amendment by both houses of congress before the second tier of debt ceiling raise takes place only that a balanced budget amendment be voted upon. This does nothing to insure a long term solution to future spending frenzies.

9)      The “deal” contains “triggers” which hold the defense spending and Medicare hostage and those “triggers themselves may, MAY be unconstitutional but with this legislation being rushed, concocted and voted upon within 24 hours, weighing the constitutionality of them is impossible. Should Congress pass the bill and those “triggers” are later found to be Unconstitutional, what would then be the fate of the rest of the bill? Unknown.

10)   The “deal”…in creating the “super committee” also gives powers to that committee which may well be wading into unconstitutional waters in that it places IN that committee powers specifically stated BY the Constitution to belong to ALL the Congress.

It should also be remembered that IF this bill passes, it will set not only the single largest raise of the debt ceiling into motion but it will do so at a time when the United States is operating WITHOUT a budget in place. THAT could well be seen as a blank check to the Obama administration.

With the vote on what is arguably the most important piece of legislation in decades only hours away, a yes vote and passage of this legislation could be a roll of the dice with America’s credit rating, our fiscal future, our ability to defend our nation and our very constitution.

Leadership of both houses continue to lobby in favor of passage of this debt “deal” and Speaker Boehner even claims that Members of the House Committee on Defense are behind it. Congressman Cantor considered to be one the best the House has in regards to fiscal issues stands for the passage of the deal.

On the other side of the coin is Michelle Bachman who says her vote is an absolute no. In the Senate, Coburn is a no vote and adamant about it.

The fact that they are coming to microphones to promote the “deal” without stating they have the numbers to PASS the “deal” at this late hour shows they are STILL trying to convince OTHER House Members to see it their way. Will They? Will this legislation pass”

Prediction: With 3 hours to go before the vote…close to a toss up….but it passes by 10 votes in the House and about the same in the Senate.

Given all which is at stake…should we risk it on a roll of the dice or should we stand firm and say…no dice?